We may be in the heart of winter, however the Vermont housing market may be showing signs of an early thaw. This change is not without its complexities, driven by a myriad of factors influencing both buyers and sellers alike. Looking ahead, predictions suggest a return of sellers, an uptick in housing supply, and a marginal increase in property prices.

One of the foundational pillars shaping the current state of the Vermont housing market is the region's robust economic stability. With an impressively low unemployment rate of 2.2% as of December 2023, Vermont stands ahead of both New England and national averages (according to the VT Department of Labor). This economic resilience sets the stage for a dynamic housing market, albeit one challenged by tight inventory and escalating prices.

Vermont has not seen a drop in the annual median home sale price since before 2019. Prior to 2014, many counties experienced fluctuating prices, with some even enduring significant periods of decline. However, the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic altered this trend. According to VHFA reports, home prices surged consistently across all counties in the state from 2019 to 2022. It was not until last year that we began to see a softening, and a shift back to a more normal marketplace.

Lately, we’ve noticed a pattern developing within our local market. While activity has picked up again after the holiday lull, we’ve still seen a number of price reductions. This is not unusual for us to see when in a prolonged sellers’ market. Sellers have often employed a high pricing strategy to test the market waters, only to find themselves making eventual concessions due to prolonged property listings. This underscores the importance of data-driven pricing strategies in navigating the market successfully. Conversely, buyers are beginning to seize opportunities as activity upticks, potentially fueled by speculation surrounding declining interest rates.

Buyer Advice:

For buyers, the current market presents opportunities for negotiation, with homes staying on the market longer and an anticipated increase in inventory. Historically, we’ve always seen more sellers return to the market as the weather warms, and we’re already seeing signs of this to again be true. Buyers can expect more opportunity in the coming months, however, be prepared for more competition to arise as well.

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Seller Advice:

Sellers, on the other hand, may find themselves in a favorable position, especially with rising home prices and an expected surge in buyer demand. However, as we always tell our sellers - their strategy needs to rely on current trends and market data in order to be successful. Remember, the longer your home sits, the less negotiation power you will have at the table. Strategy is going to become increasingly important as we shift into this new market condition.

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In summary, the Vermont housing market is navigating a landscape characterized by rising prices, shifting buyer-seller dynamics, and evolving market conditions. Both buyers and sellers are urged to stay informed about market trends and adapt their strategies accordingly to thrive in this dynamic environment. As the market continues to evolve, flexibility and strategic decision-making will be essential for success.

Chittenden County:

Single-Family Home Statistics sourced from NEREN.com

In Burlington, last month saw a surprising uptick with 10 new single family homes brought to market, and 20 homes sold. This represented a respective 66.7% and 186% increase when compared to this time last year. Homes sold in a swift 7 median days on market at a median sales price of $456K.

Across Chittenden County, there were 58 new listings and 78 sales for single family homes in January. The median days on market was 11 days while median sales price has climbed 3.9% compared to this time last year.

Lamoille County:

In Stowe, there were 6 new single family homes listed with 6 sales last month. The market certainly seems to be thawing in this resort town as well with median time on market at 9 days, and median sales price $882,500. Compared to this time last year, there were 100% more homes sold, and 200% more homes available.

Across Lamoille County, there were 13 new listings with 11 sales in January. Year over year, there were 15.4% fewer homes sold while the median sales price increased 78.1%.

Washington County:

In Montpelier, only 2 new homes were brought to the market last month with 4 sold. The median sales price was $576.5K. Based on last month’s smaller sample size, there appears to be a 300% increase in the number of homes sold, while the median sales price is up 80.2%.

In Barre, there were 8 new listings and 8 closings for single-family homes. Last month saw an extended 29 median days on market, with a median sales price of $289K. Year over year, sales are up 60% and sales price is up 4%.

In Waterbury, there were 3 single family homes available while 2 sold in January. The median sales price was $622.5K. Compared to this time last year, sales were down 33.3%.

Across Washington County, there were a total of 28 new single-family homes listed and 27 sold. Aligned with the spring thaw trend seen across Vermont, the number of available homes had actually increased 33.3% compared to this time last year.

Franklin County:

Across Franklin County, there were 26 new single family homes brought to market. January saw 24 homes sold with 34 median days on market. Despite market time increasing 143% compared to this time last year, median sales price was still 14.5% higher than last year’s sample.

Grand Isle County:

Across Grand Isle County, last month saw 7 new listings and 7 homes sold. The median market time was an unusual 44 days and sales price was $420K. Based on this month’s sample, there were 40% more homes sold while time on market was 633% longer than last year.